Volume 5, Issue 11
Monday, 12 December 2011 |   |  0 comment

By the time this issue is delivered to your mailbox the climate change negotiations in Durban – COP-17 – will have been concluded. Indications at this early stage are not promising with Canada, the United States and Saudi Arabia reputedly resisting the renewal of the Kyoto Protocol. To all intents and purposes it would appear highly likely that the world will be able to start reducing GHG emissions before 2020, the timeframe science suggests is necessary if the most dangerous climate impacts are to be avoided.

What does this imply going forward? Future (conservative) predictions based on current evidence is based on two realities: first, a less-benign, and in places a significantly harsh climate than hitherto experienced consisting of higher temperatures (in excess of the 2 degree rise currently targeted), higher wind speeds, greatly varying rates of precipitation, migrating and degrading ecosystems with a concomitant decrease in crop production, rising sea levels breeching coastal dune systems in many places and salienating inland wetlands, and natural resource consumption and depletion resulting in an increase in the rate of ecosystem loss severely decreasing ecological goods and services and making a sixth extinction unavoidable. Second extreme natural events are highly likely to increase in intensity and frequency resulting in an increase in natural disasters and a concomitant increase in debilitating damage to the built environment, home to over 50% of the world’s population.

What does this imply for environmental designers? Two things: first, every effort will have to be made to build resilience into human settlements over and beyond their ability to resist damage. Second, every effort will have to be made to include ecosystem rehabilitation into building and construction projects. The good news is that this is doable! It will require that environmental designers garner the support of communities in which they work, and that they fundamentally change the technologies they use from open-looped systems to closed-looped systems. This does not suggest that the world can continue with business as usual – on the contrary, pressure will have to continue to be applied to decision-makers to transform the global economy into a (truly) green economy, that is, an economy that is accounts for its use of natural and human resources.

The built environment is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and, along with the agricultural sector, the most significant contributors to ecosystem loss and degradation. This must be seen in perspective however: much of this circumstance comes about by a) the kind of energy used (fossil-fuel based) and b) energy intensity. To move away from this scenario requires that buildings reduce their energy demand in order to make renewable energy a viable and reliable alternative.

To assist in this process this E-Journal will make adaptation and mitigation strategies a key component of its contents going forward.

So this issue brings us to the end of 2011: may I take this opportunity of wishing you all a safe and blessed Festive Season and New Year, and thank you for joining us on this journey.

Yours truly,

Llewellyn van Wyk

Editor-at-Large.